Sunday, June 12, 2016

Understanding Probability

Probability
Probability of an event =      number of ways a desired event can happen / number of possible outcomes

Elementary event: Elementary event is the event that has a single sample point. Like the occurrence of a head when a coin is tossed.


Compound event: A compound event happens when two or more elementary events happen at the same time. For example: tossing of two coins.


Impossible event: Impossible events are those whose have the probability of occurrence is zero.  Like the occurrence of a 7 when a dice having numbers from 1 to 6 is rolled.

Sure event: Sure event are those whose occurrence is sure to happen. For example the event of getting a number less than 7 when a dice having numbers 1 to 6 is rolled.

Equally likely event: Equally likely events are those that can occur without any preferences to any one of them. Example is the occurrence of a head or tail when a fair coin is tossed.

Favorable event: Favorable events are those whose occurrence is favorable to the experiment we are doing. For example let’s say the sample space of our experiment E is the occurrence of even number when a dice is rolled. Then the occurrence of 2, 4, 6 are the favorable events.

Complementary events : Complementary events are those events that have not occurred when some event have happened. Example is the rolling of dice. If the face of dice with a  2 has shown up then rest of the faces 1,3,4,5,6 are complementary.

Mutually exclusive event : Mutually exclusive events are those when occurrence of one doesn’t mean the occurrence of the other.
For example there are two events ,E1 occurrence of an even number when a dice is rolled and E2 is the occurrence of a odd number when a dice is rolled. If E1 has happened then E2 would not have occurred.

Important terms related to probability
1.    วพ - it denotes the empty set. That means none of the event has occured
2.    S is the sample space.
3.    E is the event
Then,
1.    P (¢) = 0 that is the probability of nothing happening is zero. For example when a dice is rolled then the chances of not getting a number is nil.

2.    P(S) = 1 that is the probability of occurring the either of the number 1,2,3,4,5,6 when a dice is rolled is absolute.

3.    P(E) probability of occurrence of an event lies  0≤P(E)≤1

Odds in favor and odds in against
When the chances of occurring of an event are m and chances of an event not happening is n. Then,
 The odds in favor = m: n
And the odds against the event = n: m

Theorems related to probability are
1 .    If A and B are the only two events associated with a random experiment then
P (A U B) = P (A) + P(B) – P(A∩B)

If the events A and B are mutually exclusive (have no occurrence in common) then
P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B)

2.    If A , B and C are the only three events associated with a random experiment then

P (A U B U C) = P (A) + P (B) +P(C)   – P (A∩B) – P (B∩C) – P (C∩A) + P (A∩B∩C)

If the events A, B and C are mutually exclusive (have no occurrence in common) then
P (A U B U C) = P (A) + P (B) +P(C)

3.    If A and B are the two events and A ¢ B then P(A) ≤P(B)

4.    For any events A and B

1. P (A -B) = P (A) – P (A∩B)
2.P (B -A) = P (B) – P (A∩B)
3.P (A` ∩ B) = P (B) – P (A∩B)
4.P (A ∩ B`) = P (A) – P (A∩B)

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